Agriculture is at great risk. Could we see a repeat of last year’s drought?
2023. June 24.Weather forecasts for the summer of 2023 have been available for some time, although it is absolutely true that we do not yet know what will actually happen and what will not.
In the wake of last year’s huge drought, it is very important to be aware of the current situation and what we can expect this year.
In this article, we take a closer look at whether agriculture is really at risk this year.
Where are we now?
In recent decades, the frequency and severity of droughts have increased across Europe.
As we can see, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and climate change is a major problem worldwide.
Last year’s severe drought situation only improved in Europe from autumn, but in many regions drought persisted throughout the winter.
This is true for our country, where some areas are still facing shortages.
In many areas, groundwater levels are unfavourable, even in the upper layers.
It is interesting to note that Sopron and its surroundings, which are among the wettest areas in Hungary, also suffered from water shortages.
This spring, however, the situation has improved, with the western and south-western parts of the country completely covered by rain, but some regions, such as the Great Plain, are still struggling.
The medium-term forecast is still unchanged, with the likelihood of heavy rainfall again this year mainly in the west, south-west and possibly south, and around the mountains.
The next six months
Average near-surface temperatures across much of Europe are projected to exceed the average of recent years and decades.
Projections show a rise of 0.25-1.5 degrees Celsius.
However, precipitation patterns are even more variable, although this is already normal.
So while some areas of the continent will receive extreme rainfall, others could be hit by another severe drought.
What about our country?
The forecast shows that Hungary could be 0.5-1 degrees Celsius warmer each month than in previous years.
This could last until the end of autumn, although it appears that the month of June could be different, with average weather conditions forecast.
However, as for August, it is expected to be more than 1 degree Celsius above previous years and there is not much rain, although this is also true for July.
We might be able to recover in September, when we could get the same amount of rainfall as in May.
What is the impact on agriculture?
Global data shows that agricultural losses due to weather are huge.
Water damage is most likely to affect manufacturing, distribution and agricultural production.
Shortages can disrupt production processes, and huge storms and floods can damage land.
The agricultural sector is therefore particularly vulnerable to both too much and too little rain.
Are we in for more severe droughts?
Climate change is already a huge problem for agriculture at the current level.
There is no reason to expect the situation to improve, as a drought like last year’s could happen at any time.
Extreme drought is becoming more frequent and, worst of all, it is becoming more severe.
By 2050, it will be almost normal to have almost no rain in the summer months.
This will cause a lot of problems, because we will have to try new crops and new technologies if we want to keep agriculture going.
Europe’s average temperature is rising twice as fast as the average, and rainfall patterns are changing much more than in the rest of the world.
But this is precisely why average rainfall is impossible to predict, because while in the rest of the world the data are somewhat predictable, on our continent the situation changes in a matter of seconds.
Forecasts longer than half a year are no longer possible, and even six-monthly data are not completely accurate.
Drought is not the only problem.
We are temporarily losing land due to extreme rainfall events like torrential downpours, so even if we get a lot of rain in the west, if the land gets too wet it is just as damaging as if it doesn’t rain at all.